Soft or Hard Landing for markets

 Soft or Hard Landing for markets

Let's see if the charts can guide us to a landing we can walk away from.   GDP is no longer cleared for landing:

A spate of better-than-expected economic data has the Atlanta Fed’s forecast for Q1 GDP growth up to 2.2%. That’s a long way above the Wall Street consensus of -0.2%.   Wages are still coming in hot:

The 6.1% wage growth reported this week suggests we’re not yet ready to land this thing. But a significant turn lower in the hottest sub-category (job switcher) may keep us from overheating.   Employment is showing no signs of cooling off:

At 196,000, this week’s initial jobless claims are less than half what you’d normally see at the start of a recession.   Employers may be hoarding employees:

Construction workers, for example, are no easier to find than before mortgage rates doubled and housing sales cratered.    Housing tailwind?

With 30-year mortgage rates back down to 6.1%, we’re interested in buying houses again: Applications for mortgages surged 7.4% higher last week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. "Purchase activity … is coming back as rates ease and housing demand remains strong," an MBA economist said.   From the Bureau of Labor Statistics, with love:

Next week’s Valentine's Day CPI may break our run of near-zero inflation prints. A 0.65% month-on-month report is not the love letter the FOMC was hoping for.   The economy has decided to take another lap or two before touching down. But could inflation be ready to lift off again, too?