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The Buy Now Pay Later Move

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The Buy Now Pay Later Move We consumers have an important job. Our spending accounts for roughly two-thirds of the $23.3 trillion U.S. economy, which is by far the largest in the world. We cut back some in November and December, but consumer spending in January increased a solid 1.8%. Consumer behavior has been both fascinating and critical in the past year. Even with the pain of higher prices, spending has held up well, which is a big reason the economy has also held up well in the face rising interest rates. In what’s been a tough year, consumer-related stocks even outperformed the broader market rather easily the last 12 months, as shown by the  Consumer Discretionary SPDR ETF (XLY)  and the  Consumer Staples SPDR ETF (XLP) . If we’re going to spend all that money on stuff, wouldn’t it be nice to make some of it back by “owning” the stores you shop in?
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Post Earnings Announcement Drift (PEAD)

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  Post Earnings Announcement Drift (PEAD) Post Earnings Announcement Drift (PEAD) is a phenomenon that has been observed in the stock market. PEAD refers to the tendency of stock prices to continue to drift in the direction of an earnings surprise (either positive or negative) for a period of time after the earnings announcement. For example, if a company reports higher than expected earnings, its stock price may increase immediately after the announcement. However, research has shown that the stock price may continue to increase for a period of time after the announcement, as more investors become aware of the positive earnings surprise and adjust their investment strategies accordingly. Conversely, if a company reports lower-than-expected earnings, its stock price may initially drop. But the price may keep declining for a while as more investors learn about the negative news. How to trade Post Earnings Announcement Drift (PEAD)? In the strategy, we won't have to judge whether ear...
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Investing Types

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 Investing Types
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Short the Market

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  1)   Proshares S&P 500 Short ETF (SH):   This ETF is an inverse ETF that trades at a -1 to 1 performance of the S&P 500. For every 1% that the S&P 500 falls, the SH will gain 1%. When S&P 500 selling picks up, I prefer to purchase an equal weighted stake of SH to my other positions in a long-term portfolio. I don’t want to sell my long-term positions, but I do want to hedge against a downturn.  2) Options on the  Proshares S&P 500 Short ETF (SH) : There is an active options chain for this ETF. If you purchase the in-the-money call for the following month (March 17, 2023), you can replicate the performance of 100 shares of the ETF with a small amount of capital. The only difference is that it will require some ability to pay for time in the options chain. I don’t like to use spreads largely because it caps the potential upside of the trade.  3)  ProShares UltraPro Short S&P500 (SPXU):  Finally, there is the high-octane tra...
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Buying back missed NI years - UK

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Buying back missed NI years - UK (2023) “Buying back missed years can be a good way to bolster retirement income as just one qualifying year of NI at the standard rate of £824.20 adds up to £275 per year (1/35 of the full rate of the state pension) to your pre-tax state pension – putting the breakeven point of making those contributions at three years after you start claiming your state pension,” says Alice Haine, personal finance analyst at Bestinvest.  You’ll make the money back as long as you get your pension for three years. Anything after that would be profit, making it a worthwhile investment as this £824.20 outlay would amount to £5,500 over a typical 20-year retirement.  If you purchase back five years of NI for £4,121, that will boost your retirement pot by £27,500 - a staggering return on investment of nearly 600%.  That’s a pretty good return on the initial investment, especially if you’ve got the extra cash and were thinking of investing it in something else....
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Reading the market

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Reading the market  In fact, 12-month returns after a day like today – a 90% down day in a bear market – are almost always significantly positive, going back to 1995.  So that would give you an Alpha of 1.7% and 15.4% which is a great probability.
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The Industrials Sector Index Fund $XLI

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  The Industrials Sector Index Fund $XLI   During this bull market in particular, the one that turned 8-months old earlier this week, Industrials have been a real leader. The Industrials Sector Index Fund $XLI is the best performing sector of them all since the June lows. Now take a look at Industrials on an equally-weighted basis relative to the S&P500 equally-weighted. From a broader perspective, Industrials are breaking out to new 14-year highs relative to the rest of the market: One thing we know for certain is that new 14-year highs are not something we see a lot of in downtrends. This is a group we want to continue to own. It's not anything new. We've been all over this theme since it started to develop last year. Here's Deere $DE for example pushing up against new all-time highs attempting to break out of this massive base: Are you fighting these trends? I can't imagine why you would. There is more sector rotation and emerging leadership taking place in this ...
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