PPI - looking better

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The only number that came out remotely good was PPI excluding Food, Energy & Trade Services year-over-year. 

It wasn’t that long ago that the Fed reduced rate hikes to 0.25 basis points, but now Cleveland Fed President Mester said she saw a compelling case for a +0.50 basis point rate hike.  And now the dot plot of the Fed Funds rate will probably edge above 5% before all is said and done.  But is this news really affecting the market?Even though the market sold off yesterday - the S&P 500 (SPY) lost over 1% -  we’re still holding the long-term trend that started before 2023.  Sure, we need a higher high soon, but right now we’re still holding the trend line.

If we zoom out to the weekly chart, we can see that we’re still in the uptrend that started in October of last year.  I’m looking for the 400 level to hold (4000 on SPX).  That’s only about 2% away from current levels.

And if we go out even further to the monthly chart, we can see a similar support line at 400 and possible resistance around 415 and then up at 430.So, while the news seems a bit bearish, the reality is the market needs a pullback from current levels, but the positive trends are still in place for the time being.


Overall positive trend, with some pullbacks.

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