Oil 2022/23

-

 


The emptying of the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) will be an issues in the future. The U.S. established the SPR after the 1973 oil embargo. It consists of 60 large salt caverns spread across four states. In total, it can hold as much as 727 million barrels of oil.

It was intended to insulate the U.S. from oil supply shocks. Certain key industries – and the U.S. military – had access to this oil in times of national emergency.

When the price didn’t cooperate, Biden unleashed the taps. He pledged to release 180 million barrels of oil in six months starting in April.

You can see what effect that had on oil prices in the chart above.

Today, the SPR sits at its lowest level in about 40 years. The White House claims it plans to refill the SPR when oil prices are consistently around $70 a barrel. That effectively puts a floor on that price.

However, there are some monsters lurking in the shadows waiting to wreak havoc on the oil market.

While asking them to pump more oil, it simultaneously says the goal is to shut down the oil business in the next decade. That gives no incentive for oil executives to ramp up production or spending.

Oil is heading higher in the year ahead. We may not see the price spikes we saw earlier this year. But we believe the price of oil could easily break the $100 per barrel price by the end of 2023.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

All six cylinders are working - Good Outlook

-
Image
 All six cylinders are working - Good Outlook And in 2022, trade between the U.S. and China reached record levels. Shipping rates, another measure of trade activity, have improved over the past couple of years. As the world emerged from the COVID-19 pandemic, shipping rates plummeted. Since its peak in September 2021, the WCI Composite Container Freight Benchmark rate has been down 80%. And global supply chains are nowhere near as strained as they were during the pandemic. Russia tensions will be less or gone in H2 China will replace Russia as the naughty Man of the world.
Read more

The Industrials Sector Index Fund $XLI

-
Image
  The Industrials Sector Index Fund $XLI   During this bull market in particular, the one that turned 8-months old earlier this week, Industrials have been a real leader. The Industrials Sector Index Fund $XLI is the best performing sector of them all since the June lows. Now take a look at Industrials on an equally-weighted basis relative to the S&P500 equally-weighted. From a broader perspective, Industrials are breaking out to new 14-year highs relative to the rest of the market: One thing we know for certain is that new 14-year highs are not something we see a lot of in downtrends. This is a group we want to continue to own. It's not anything new. We've been all over this theme since it started to develop last year. Here's Deere $DE for example pushing up against new all-time highs attempting to break out of this massive base: Are you fighting these trends? I can't imagine why you would. There is more sector rotation and emerging leadership taking place in this ...
Read more

February Hangover.

-
Image
  February Hangover . The November through January period is historically the most bullish 3 months of the year. And then comes the February Hangover. We're in the middle of that right now. Look at the average performance of every February going back to 1950: And remember, this is the most bullish quarter of the 4-year presidential cycle. Of the 16 quarters in the entire cycle, the one we're in is historically the most bullish.
Read more