We are potentially looking at a further peak in inflation as Xmas and the energy costs push inflation up, further increases in interest rates are needed.
Having further borrowing for energy costs that are distributed to the public will push up inflation even further!
All six cylinders are working - Good Outlook And in 2022, trade between the U.S. and China reached record levels. Shipping rates, another measure of trade activity, have improved over the past couple of years. As the world emerged from the COVID-19 pandemic, shipping rates plummeted. Since its peak in September 2021, the WCI Composite Container Freight Benchmark rate has been down 80%. And global supply chains are nowhere near as strained as they were during the pandemic. Russia tensions will be less or gone in H2 China will replace Russia as the naughty Man of the world.
The Industrials Sector Index Fund $XLI During this bull market in particular, the one that turned 8-months old earlier this week, Industrials have been a real leader. The Industrials Sector Index Fund $XLI is the best performing sector of them all since the June lows. Now take a look at Industrials on an equally-weighted basis relative to the S&P500 equally-weighted. From a broader perspective, Industrials are breaking out to new 14-year highs relative to the rest of the market: One thing we know for certain is that new 14-year highs are not something we see a lot of in downtrends. This is a group we want to continue to own. It's not anything new. We've been all over this theme since it started to develop last year. Here's Deere $DE for example pushing up against new all-time highs attempting to break out of this massive base: Are you fighting these trends? I can't imagine why you would. There is more sector rotation and emerging leadership taking place in this ...
February Hangover . The November through January period is historically the most bullish 3 months of the year. And then comes the February Hangover. We're in the middle of that right now. Look at the average performance of every February going back to 1950: And remember, this is the most bullish quarter of the 4-year presidential cycle. Of the 16 quarters in the entire cycle, the one we're in is historically the most bullish.
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